1. The polls may be wrong. This is an unprecedented election. No one knowshow racism may affect what voters tell pollsters–or what they do in thevoting booth. And the polls are narrowing anyway. In the last few days,John McCain has gained ground in most national polls, as his campaign hasgone even more negative.
2. Dirty tricks. Republicans are already illegally purging voters from therolls in some states. They’re whipping up hysteria over ACORN to justifymore challenges to new voters. Misleading flyers about the voting processhave started appearing in black neighborhoods. And of course, manycounties still use unsecure voting machines.
3. October surprise. In politics, 15 days is a long time. The next McCainsmear could dominate the news for a week. There could be a crisis withIran, or Bin Laden could release another tape, or worse.
4. Those who forget history… In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote aftertrailing by seven points in the final days of the race. In 1980, Reaganwas eight points down in the polls in late October and came back to win.Races can shift–fast!
5. Landslide. Even with Barack Obama in the White House, passing universalhealth care and a new clean-energy policy is going to be hard. Insurance,drug and oil companies will fight us every step of the way. We need thekind of landslide that will give Barack a huge mandate.
Note: this is not my own writing but from an email sent out by MoveOn.Org